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Rumination 21 Experimental Design 101

Thursday, 5 March 2009

Rumination 19 Waiting for Godot

Saturday, 13 December 2008

Rumination 17. Dear Diary

Sunday, 5 October 2008

Rumination 16: Bad News, Good News

Wednesday, 10 September 2008

Ruminations 15: Lawyers 10, Science 1

Tuesday, 5 August 2008

Rumination 14

Monday, 7 July 2008

Rumination 13 - This is Science?

Saturday, 10 May 2008

Rumination 12 - Stable is Good

Wednesday, 19 March 2008

Ruminations collected

Thursday, 3 January 2008

Ruminations 10: Not So Glad Tidings

Sunday, 16 December 2007

Rumination 9. An Experiment in Diagnostics

Friday, 21 September 2007

Rumination 8: Whodathunkit!

Saturday, 4 August 2007

Rumination 7: The Path Ahead

Sunday, 24 June 2007

Rumination 6: Intermission

Saturday, 26 May 2007

Rumination 5 - The Lost Month

Monday, 14 May 2007

Ruminations 3

Thursday, 22 March 2007

Ruminations 2 - Reprieve

Friday, 9 March 2007

Rumination 1 - Reprise

Monday, 5 February 2007

Ruminations 3

posted Thursday, 22 March 2007
Ruminations 3: Radiation Therapy Decisions
By Tom Vogl
March 22, 2007
 
As I mentioned in the first of these rumination,
Reprise, medical decisions are intrinsically synthetic
rather than analytic.  My currently imminent decision
on whether or not to undertake radiation therapy is,
unfortunately for me, a case study in making decisions
on inadequate information. First, a summary of the
available information. I found seven papers relevant
to radiation therapy:
 
Ballo, M.T. et al., “Combined-Modality Therapy for
Patients with Regional Nodal Metastases from Melanoma”
Int. J. Radiation Oncology Biol. Phys., 64:106-113
(2006)
 
Kienstra, M.A., & Padhya, T.A., “Head and Neck
Melanoma”, Cancer Control 12: 242-247 (2005)
 
Grunhagen, D.J. et al., “Prognostic Factors After
Cervical Lymph Node Dissection for Cutaneous Melanoma
Metastases”, Melanoma Research 15: 179 – 184 (2005)
 
Owens, J.M. et al., “The Role of Postoperative
Adjuvant Radiation Therapy in the Treatment of Mucosal
melanomas of the Head and Neck Region”, Arch.
Otolaryngol. Head Neck Surg. 119:864-868 (2003)
 
Ballo, M.T., et al., “Adjuvant Irradiation for
Cervical Lymph Node Metastases from Melanoma”, Cancer
97: 1789 – 1796 (2003)
 
Lengyel, E., et al., “Malignant Mucosal melanoma of
the Head and Neck – a Review”, Pathology Oncology
Research, 9: 7-12 (2003) Also at:
www.webio.hu/por/2003/9/1/0007
 
Lee, R.J., et al., Nodal Basin Recurrence Following
Lymph Node Dissection for melanoma: Implications for
Adjuvant Radiotherapy”, Int. J. Radiation Oncology
Biol. Phys.,46: 467 – 474 (2000)
 
I will try to summarize what each of these papers
presents from the perspective of its relevance to me,
which as you will see, is fraught with uncertainty for
several unavoidable reasons.  The patient populations
they study, although they all have melanoma, are very
heterogeneous in terms of site of the primary lesion
and the extent of disease at the time treatment was
started.  Despite this heterogeneity, the number of
patients in each study, and particularly when broken
down into cells, is small.  The vast majority of the
patients in these studies have cutaneous (skin)
melanoma (CM) because the mucosal melanoma (MM, which
I have) is so rare and carries distinctly different
genetic alterations and biochemical pathway activity
[Curtin et al., NEJM 353: 2135 (2005)].
 
Kienstra (2005) notes that MM “are rare lesions but
have a poor prognosis. Because of their development in
hidden, clinically silent areas, diagnosis often
occurs late [not in my case] … contributing to the
poorer outcome.” 
 
Lengyel (2003), which is the only paper focusing on
MM, reviews 10 studies (some as early as the 1950’s)
and concludes that “CM had a mean [5 year] survival
rate that was higher (81 – 85%) than that (17.1%
[range 0 – 48%]) for MM.”  He points out that “The
characteristics of the survival curves explained by
the very different possible clinical courses of
malignant melanomas, ranging from the
highly-malignant, aggressive disease to a relatively
low grade tumor.”
 
Grunhagen (2005) reports on 66 consecutive patients
(over a 22 year period) an overall 50% survival of 27
months after cervical lymph node dissection. 15
received post operative radiation therapy; 4 of the 15
developed cervical recurrence. With more than one
metastatic lymph node at dissection, the 50% survival
rate was reached at 18 months.
 
Ballo (2006) reports considerably more optimistic
numbers, with the 5-year survival of 49%.  Since this
is the most recent data and on a relatively large
(245) group of patients, this study has to be given
considerable weight taking into account the
heterogeneity of the study population. His abstract
concludes: “Although regional nodal disease can be
satisfactorily controlled with lymphadenectomy and
radiation, the risk of distant metastases and melanoma
death remains high. A management approach to these
patients that accounts for the competing risks of
distant metastases, regional failure, and long-term
toxicity is needed.”  The long-term toxicity issue is
not significant for cervical lymph nodes, but the
probability of cervical recurrence is high.
 
Lee’s (2000) survival figures are similar (50% at 24
months) with the highest rate of recurrence in the
cervical basin at 43% at 10 years, compared to 28% and
24% in the axillary and inguinal basins.  The number
of positive nodes also predicts nodal basin failure
with the presence of 4 – 10 positive nodes predictive
of a 46% failure rate.  He concludes: “In summary,
there are sufficient data to suggest that adjuvant
radiation therapy to the nodal basin in high-risk
patients with malignant melanoma decreases nodal basin
failure rates. The impact on survival is uncertain, as
many patients develop distant metastases and die of
disease. However, the importance of local-regional
control cannot be overlooked, and as more effective
systemic therapy is developed and distant spread is
decreased, the importance of local control may
increase.”
 
Owens (2003) “The addition of radiotherapy tended to
decrease the rate of local failure but did not
significantly improve survival because of the high
rate of distant metastatic disease.”
 
I will not bore you further before getting to the
point: Should I, or should I not, agree to radiation
therapy? The rationale for doing it is clear.  It
reduces local recurrence which may – it is really a
pious theoretical hope without a shred of evidence –
decrease the likelihood distant metastases.
 
The rationale for not doing it is not quite a clear
but, I think, equally convincing.  It may indeed be
the case that my immune system may kick back in, or
that the melanoma becomes indolent, or for some other
reason I will end up surviving another ten or more
years; this outcome has low probability.  More likely
is the generally accepted figure of 25-50% at five
years with the odds for the lower end because of the
six positive lymph nodes and that it is MM and not CM.
I also know, from my experience with radiation therapy
18 months ago, that the therapy itself is quite
tolerable, all the more so because the current
recommendation is for a high dose of radiation twice a
week rather than a lower dose daily, which means that
I would travel far less frequently. However, it took
me about eight months to get over the radiation
therapy and return to full functionality.  Most of
that time I spent in my recliner, too exhausted to do
much of anything.
 
Statistically, the most probable, but hardly
inevitable, outcome for me is that distant metastases
will develop sometime in the next 18 months and that I
will live another 12 months after that. Does it make
sense for me to spend 8 of those 18 good months
exhausted from therapy that has only a marginal
probability of extending my life or changing the
outcome?
 
Time for a pop quiz: What would you decide and, more
importantly, what is the rationale for your decision.
 
Today, Thursday March 22, I had a long and very useful
conversation with Dr. McAnaw, the oncological
radiation therapist at Cape Cod Hospital who did the
radiation therapy following my first operation.  We
had an extensive, wide ranging conversation covering
radiation modalities and dosages (electrons vs.
photons  -- hyper vs hypo-fractionation of radiation
dosage, etc.) and the importance of shaping any
radiation field to miss those areas that have
previously been irradiated. We agreed that the growth
characteristics of my melanoma were such that it would
probably be 12 -18 month before a macroscopic tumor
reappeared. We shall see. In the meantime, we decided
to await the results of the PET scan scheduled for
April 3 and call in the experts at Dana-Farber before
making a decision on Radiation treatment at the end of
April.
[This is Katherine.  It was a tough but not unexpected
day, at leaast when talking to the doctor.  It feels
very odd to be talking about end of life decisions,
when Tom is feeling so well and so strong.  But that
is part of the process and we understand that, more or
less.
As we were leaving the clinic, a carload of Island
cancer patients drove up and we had a nice - slightly
gallows dinged visit.  Then we found a fantastic
(though pricey used bookstore in Hyannis (Tims Used
Books Inc 386 Main St.) and found books both new and
old on that we wanted.  The radiologist knows food and
directed us to Ying's http://www.yings.net/ for lunch.
It is a wonderful storefront Japanese/Thai/Korean
place. We had an incredible Koren hot and sour soup, a
Thai green curry, and a beef Bibampup (sp?) which is
our radiologist's favorite.  Excellent food!
The baby chicks did fine while we were gone and for an
afternoon treat got scraps of green lettuce and some
leftover banana bread.  They are now sound asleep
after a long day! 

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1. Barbara left...
Friday, 23 March 2007 11:42 am

Oh dear. I don't know what I would decide if I were in Tom's shoes. Cherish the good in each day whether it be incredible hot and sour soup or baby chicks.


2. Linda left...
Saturday, 24 March 2007 12:05 pm :: http://catinthegarden.blogspot.com

I already made such a decision based on what I have seen other people go through-I will never have chemotherophy. I would rather locate a good herbologist and do the herbal method. It is at least,less apt to make one sicker, even if it is perceived to be less effective. I have the attitude that if they remove something, that is great. It gives the body a chance to heal itself. But I don't see how anything that makes you sick, can make you better. I want to live as long as I can, but I want to feel good. Each person has to decide for themselves how they want to spend their time. I would rather not spend it in a hospital.


3. Karen Cheshire left...
Thursday, 12 April 2007 6:15 pm

"time I spent in my recliner, too exhausted to do much of anything." Tom, you don't need to DO anything. Just BE. Get whatever treatment the statistics suggest (I'd rather you had a 54% chance of being alive than 46%), and then come home and RELAX. Your lying in the recliner (provided it is a comfortable lie) is every bit as contributory to the conglomerate happiness and well-being of this world as your spending the day reshelving books at the library or taking care of the chickens, and both of those activities are as big a contribution as your most productive day at the NIH. It's you we want--not the production. So please give us the best possible odds that medical treatments available at this time can hope to provide. (Just think. Had I not met you at Friday morning rounds, I would not currently be traveling to anesthesia locums jobs in 3 states accompanied by a crippled quail antwerp hen, a genetic defective from McMurray's. If I leave her at the home coop, she gets pecked half to death, so she has made 2 trips to Florida, and the doormen at our NYC apartment--111 St. and B'way--greet her by name on every arrival. She's two years old now and lays an egg every other day. The dog that travels with me usually eats the egg before it cools. I love the little hen and learn so much by watching her, as I have from all my Galline-American family.)